Market Morning: What's Moving Forex Today (13 November 2026)
Today's Main Event
Today's main calendar event is the release of October US producer price data at 13:30 UTC. Headline PPI is forecast to rise 0,4% month over month, following 1,3% in the previous period. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to rise 0,3%, following 0,7%. Both forecasts therefore point to a marked slowdown in monthly price growth. This means prices are expected to rise more slowly, rather than fall. For the forex market, what matters is the difference between actual readings and expectations: even inflation that is lower than the previous month's reading can be unexpectedly high relative to the forecast. These estimates are a guide ahead of the release, not results that have already been published.
PPI measures changes in producers' selling prices and helps gauge price pressures in the economy. The data can influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy, US bond yields and, through those channels, the dollar. However, the link to consumer inflation is not automatic: production costs are not always passed on to buyers in full. Above-forecast readings could reinforce expectations of tighter Fed policy; weaker figures could strengthen expectations of easing. The focus will be on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY, as well as gold priced in dollars. The direction and staying power of the market reaction will depend on the combination of headline and core readings, revisions to previous data and movements in yields. A single release does not determine the Fed's future decisions.
Today's Calendar
- 13:30 UTC · USD · Core PPI m/m — high impact. Forecast: 0,3%, previous: 0,7%. Core producer price inflation: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and gold could react. This measure helps assess price trends without the direct influence of the most volatile food and energy components.
- 13:30 UTC · USD · PPI m/m — high impact. Forecast: 0,4%, previous: 1,3%. Headline producer price changes: potential impact on dollar pairs, US bonds and gold. The headline index is released alongside the core index, so the market will assess both results together.
What Traders Should Watch
The main window for event-driven volatility is around 13:30 UTC and in the first few minutes after the release. Two important indicators are released simultaneously, so the initial reaction could be sharp. Spreads may widen and prices may briefly jump. If market participants interpret the report's details differently, the initial move could reverse; the release time itself does not determine the direction of exchange rates.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY will be in particular focus. In the first two pairs, changes in the market's assessment of the dollar feed directly into exchange rates, while the response of US Treasury yields is an additional factor for USD/JPY. Gold is also sensitive to the combined movement of the dollar and interest rates. However, the same US release does not guarantee moves of equal size across all these instruments.
The key factors to watch are consistency between the figures and any revisions. Above-forecast readings for both headline and core PPI would provide a clearer inflation signal than mixed results. A weak headline index paired with a firm core reading could prompt a mixed reaction. Revisions to previous readings could change the picture of slowing price growth, so the market may continue to digest the report after the initial price move.