Market Morning: What's Moving Forex Today (12 November 2026)
Main Event of the Day
The main event on today's calendar is the UK GDP release at 07:00 UTC. The monthly estimate, rated high impact, and preliminary quarterly figures are due at the same time. The monthly GDP forecast points to growth stalling: 0,0% after 0,1% in the previous period. Meanwhile, quarterly growth is expected to come in at 0,7% versus the previous 0,5%. These estimates cover different periods, so flat monthly growth does not in itself contradict an acceleration in quarterly growth. The focus will be on how the two figures fit together: whether the UK economy is maintaining momentum or whether a stronger quarterly result is accompanied by slowing growth toward the end of the period.
For the pound, deviations from forecasts matter most: they could shift assessments of the economy's resilience and expectations for the Bank of England's future policy. Weak figures could fuel discussion of the need to support growth, while stronger readings could call that scenario into question. However, the currency's reaction is not predetermined: it also depends on overall demand for the dollar and how consistent the two releases prove to be. GBP/USD, EUR/GBP and GBP/JPY will be directly affected by the data. If the monthly and quarterly figures send conflicting signals, initial moves could give way to a reassessment once traders have examined the full set of figures.
Today's Calendar
- 07:00 UTC · GBP · Monthly GDP — high impact. Forecast: 0,0%, previous: 0,1%. The main early source of event-driven volatility for GBP/USD and other pound pairs. A substantial deviation from expectations could also affect UK government bonds.
- 07:00 UTC · GBP · Preliminary Quarterly GDP — medium impact. Forecast: 0,7%, previous: 0,5%. Released alongside the monthly figure, it provides the broader context for the pound's reaction, particularly in GBP/USD and EUR/GBP.
- 13:30 UTC · USD · Initial Jobless Claims — medium impact. Forecast: 194 thousand, previous: 189 thousand. A slight increase in claims is expected. The focus will be on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and US government bond yields; the scale of the reaction will depend on the size of the surprise.
- 19:30 UTC · EUR · Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde — medium impact. No numerical forecast. Comments on inflation, economic growth and the interest rate outlook could be significant for EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY. There is no predetermined direction for the reaction.
What Traders Should Watch
- 07:00 UTC — two simultaneous UK releases. This is the most significant concentration of event risk on today's calendar. Sharp swings in the pound are possible immediately after the data is released; conflicting monthly and quarterly estimates could make the reaction less clear-cut. For EUR/GBP, the UK data will be the first of two separate drivers today.
- 13:30 UTC — attention shifts to the dollar. The claims forecast is just 5 thousand above the previous reading, so the key question is how far the actual figure deviates from the expected 194 thousand. By this point, GBP/USD will have been exposed to UK and US data in succession. A single weekly reading does not, on its own, provide a complete picture of the US labor market.
- 19:30 UTC — risk of moves on ECB comments. Significant comments from Lagarde may come during the speech, so volatility will not necessarily be confined to its opening minute. EUR/USD could see a reassessment of the outlook for European interest rates, while EUR/GBP could see further movement following the morning's reaction to UK GDP.