Market Morning: What Is Moving Forex Today (10 November 2026)
The Day’s Main Event
Tuesday’s main focus is US inflation: the monthly headline and core Consumer Price Index readings will be released simultaneously at 13:30 UTC. According to the supplied calendar, headline CPI is forecast at 0,3%, compared with the previous reading of 0,6%, while core CPI is forecast at 0,2%, compared with 0,3%. The forecasts therefore point to slower monthly price growth in both measures. The core index excludes food and energy and helps assess the more persistent component of inflation. These figures matter to the currency market because they influence expectations for Fed policy: a deviation from forecasts could change the expected path of interest rates and move US bond yields, which could in turn move the dollar.
The focus will be on the difference between actual readings and forecasts. Higher-than-forecast readings could strengthen expectations for tight Fed policy, while lower-than-forecast readings could support expectations for easing, although neither the direction nor the persistence of the market reaction is predetermined. If headline and core CPI send conflicting signals, the initial move could reverse. The release will most directly affect EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY; AUD/USD and USD/CHF may also be sensitive. Changes in US bond yields provide an additional channel for the reaction in USD/JPY. Before the data release, Christopher Waller’s speech at 09:00 UTC could help shape how markets interpret the figures.
The Day’s Calendar
- 09:00 UTC — USD: FOMC member Christopher Waller speaks. Importance: medium. Potential impact: dollar pairs, particularly EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY, as well as US bonds. Comments on inflation and interest rates will matter if those topics come up. The speech itself does not guarantee any new signals.
- 13:30 UTC — USD: core CPI, m/m. Importance: high. Forecast: 0,2%, previous reading: 0,3%. A key measure for assessing the persistence of price pressures; major dollar pairs, US bond yields and gold could react.
- 13:30 UTC — USD: headline CPI, m/m. Importance: high. Forecast: 0,3%, previous reading: 0,6%. Released alongside the core index, it shapes the overall inflation signal. The dollar, gold and US stock indices could be affected.
What Traders Should Watch
- Two windows for potential market moves: around 09:00 and 13:30 UTC. The morning reaction will depend on the content of Waller’s speech; the inflation release is the main scheduled source of volatility. Fresh comments from the Fed official could influence expectations before the figures are published, but the content of the speech is not known in advance.
- The first few minutes after 13:30 UTC could bring sharp swings. The simultaneous release of two indicators increases the likelihood of a rapid repricing of the dollar. EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY could see wider spreads and less consistent order execution. The scale of the reaction depends on both the direction of the surprise and its size relative to the forecast.
- A slowdown from the previous month and a below-forecast reading send different signals. For example, headline CPI of 0,4% would mean slower price growth compared with the previous reading of 0,6%, but it would exceed the 0,3% forecast. This distinction matters when interpreting the market reaction. If headline and core CPI deviate from forecasts in opposite directions, movements in currencies, bonds and gold could be mixed.