Market Morning: What’s Moving Forex Today (6 November 2026)
The Day’s Main Event
Friday’s main focus is the US jobs report at 13:30 UTC. The forecast calls for nonfarm payroll growth to accelerate to 65 thousand from 29 thousand, unemployment to hold at 4,2%, and monthly average hourly earnings growth to rise to 0,3% from 0,1%. The dollar’s reaction will depend on all three figures: job growth reflects demand for labor, unemployment indicates the overall state of the labor market, and wages help gauge inflationary pressure. Deviations from forecasts could shift expectations for Fed policy and trigger significant moves in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY, as well as gold.
Pay particular attention to USD/CAD: Canadian employment data will be released at the same time as the US figures. Canada is expected to add 14,6 thousand jobs following a decline of 68,3 thousand, with unemployment unchanged at 6,5%. Both currencies in the pair will therefore have their own catalysts in the same minute. If the reports send conflicting signals, the initial move could quickly reverse; what matters will be how far each country’s results deviate from expectations relative to the other’s. These figures are forecasts and previous readings, not the published results of today’s reports.
Today’s Economic Calendar
- 13:30 UTC · CAD · Employment Change — high impact. Forecast: +14,6 thousand, previous: −68,3 thousand. The main impact will be on USD/CAD and Canadian dollar crosses, with attention on the size of the rebound following the previous decline.
- 13:30 UTC · CAD · Unemployment Rate — high impact. Forecast and previous reading: 6,5%. This will round out the employment picture and could amplify or dampen CAD’s reaction to the headline figure.
- 13:30 UTC · USD · Average Hourly Earnings, m/m — high impact. Forecast: 0,3%, previous: 0,1%. Major dollar pairs, US bond yields and gold are sensitive to this release.
- 13:30 UTC · USD · Nonfarm Payrolls — high impact. Forecast: +65 thousand, previous: +29 thousand. A key release for a broad range of dollar pairs.
- 13:30 UTC · USD · Unemployment Rate — high impact. Forecast and previous reading: 4,2%. This affects the dollar through assessments of labor market resilience and interest rate expectations.
- 15:00 UTC · CAD · Ivey PMI — medium impact. Forecast: 57,7, previous: 58,2. This could spark further moves in USD/CAD and other CAD pairs.
- 15:00 UTC · USD · Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index — medium impact. Forecast: 48,1, previous: 46,3. Dollar pairs and the assessment of consumer sentiment will be in focus.
- 15:00 UTC · USD · Preliminary University of Michigan Inflation Expectations — medium impact. Previous reading: 4,7%; no forecast provided. The dollar, bonds and gold could react.
- 16:00 UTC · JPY · Speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda — high impact. USD/JPY and yen crosses are the most sensitive; comments on interest rates and inflation will matter.
What Traders Should Watch
- The main volatility window is 13:30 UTC and the first few minutes after the releases. The simultaneous release of five indicators increases the likelihood of sharp swings, wider spreads and a reassessment of the initial reaction as traders work through the details.
- A second wave of moves is possible at 15:00 UTC. US consumer sentiment and inflation expectations will add to the morning’s picture, while the Ivey PMI will provide a separate signal for CAD. USD/CAD faces a particularly busy economic news schedule.
- At 16:00 UTC, attention will shift to the yen. Substantive comments from Ueda could drive USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY in their own right, even if the reaction to the North American data has faded by then.