Market Morning: What's Moving Forex Today (4 November 2026)
The Main Event of the Day
The main focus of the European session is the eurozone's preliminary inflation estimate, due at 10:00 UTC. Headline consumer price inflation is forecast to accelerate to 4,0% year over year from 3,8%, while core inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 2,5%. This makes both the headline figure and the relationship between the two measures important: accelerating headline inflation alongside stable core inflation would paint a different picture of price pressures than both measures coming in above forecast. These figures influence expectations for ECB policy and, in turn, the euro and European bond yields.
The most direct reaction could come in EUR/USD, as well as EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY. The forecast already accounts for an increase in headline inflation from its previous reading, so any surprise will hinge on how the actual figures compare with expectations. Above-consensus readings could strengthen expectations of a more hawkish ECB stance; below-forecast readings could weaken them. The euro's direction is not predetermined, however: both releases, the initial reaction in interest rate markets and overall demand for the dollar will matter. If the measures send conflicting signals, initial moves could quickly reverse.
Today's Economic Calendar
- 10:00 UTC · EUR · Core inflation, preliminary estimate, y/y. Forecast: 2,5%, previous: 2,5%. This measure helps assess the persistence of price pressures excluding the most volatile components. The focus is on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY and European government bonds. Calendar impact rating: medium.
- 10:00 UTC · EUR · Headline inflation, preliminary estimate, y/y. Forecast: 4,0%, previous: 3,8%. Inflation is expected to accelerate by 0,2 percentage points. The release comes out alongside the core measure, so the euro's reaction will depend on the overall picture. The main markets sensitive to the data are EUR pairs and European interest rate markets. Impact rating: medium.
- 15:00 UTC · USD · ISM Services PMI. Forecast: 54,8, previous: 54,9. Only a slight decline in the US services activity index is expected. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and US Treasury yields could react. Impact rating: medium.
What Traders Should Watch
- The two main windows for potential volatility are around 10:00 and 15:00 UTC. At the time of the releases, prices may move faster than usual and spreads may temporarily widen. A medium calendar impact rating does not rule out a significant move if actual readings differ substantially from forecasts.
- For EUR/USD, the day has two distinct data phases. In the morning, the pair will take its cue from European inflation; in the afternoon, from US business activity. The ISM release could reinforce the morning move or reverse it if it significantly affects expectations for Fed interest rates.
- The key reference point is the gap between actual readings and forecasts. Inflation accelerating to 4,0% and ISM declining to 54,8 would be in line with the stated expectations. A stronger reaction is more likely if the figures deliver a surprise; for inflation, a divergence between the headline and core measures would add uncertainty. An initial price spike alone does not mean a sustained move is developing.