Forex Analysis for 4 November 2026

Forex Analysis for 4 November 2026

Market Overview

The base case for the next 24 hours is moderate dollar weakness, with further losses dependent on European inflation and the US services business activity index. As of 09:00 UTC, the euro, pound and Australian dollar are up around 0,5% against the US dollar, while USD/JPY is down 0,25%. This broad move points to current pressure on the dollar, although it does not, on its own, explain the selling or guarantee that it will continue.

EUR/USD is trading at 1,12510, GBP/USD at 1,34820 and AUD/USD at 0,70050. All three pairs are near the upper ends of their daily ranges. USD/JPY is at 158,229, remaining well above its daily low of 157,380. The strength of the move against the dollar therefore varies: the European currencies and Australian dollar are holding near their highs, while the yen has recovered only part of its intraday range.

Gold is trading at $4 035,40, unchanged in the current data snapshot. Bitcoin is at $78 355,00, up 2,37% over 24 hours, with trading volume of $30,98 billion.

Two release windows matter today:

• 10:00 UTC — eurozone inflation. Headline CPI is forecast at 4,0% year on year, up from 3,8%, with core CPI unchanged at 2,5%. The acceleration in headline inflation is already reflected in the consensus; the reaction will depend on how the figures compare with forecasts and the combination of headline and core readings.
• 15:00 UTC — US ISM Services PMI. The forecast is 54,8, down from 54,9. Such a small decline does not, by itself, confirm a significant deterioration in business conditions. For the dollar, the size of the surprise relative to 54,8 matters more.

The historical data and current snapshot cannot be treated as fully synchronized. For example, the current GBP/USD price is already above the stated upper bound of the 30-day closing range, and some of the quoted percentages for positions within ranges do not match current prices. The levels below are calculated using current prices; historical boundaries serve as reference points, while 5-day and 20-day changes provide separate context.

EUR/USD

Current price — 1,12510; change — +0,53%. Outlook for the next 24 hours: bullish, heavily dependent on the releases.

The pair is just 13 pips below its daily high of 1,12640. This shows sustained demand for the euro following its rise from the lower part of the 1,11890–1,12640 range. However, the five-day gain is only 0,26%, while the pair remains down 0,80% over twenty days: the current momentum is still developing against a weaker medium-term backdrop.

At the current price, the euro is approximately 34% of the way up the stated 30-day range of 1,11300–1,14900. Today's rise therefore does not yet mean a return to the upper part of that range.

Support:

• 1,12265 — the midpoint of the current daily range, 24,5 pips below the current price.
• 1,11890 — the low of the past 24 hours.
• 1,11300 — the lower bound of the supplied daily closing range.

Resistance:

• 1,12640 — the high of the past 24 hours.
• 1,13000 — the next round-number reference level.
• 1,13390 — a level calculated by projecting the width of the daily range above its high; this is a scenario reference level, rather than confirmed historical resistance.

The base case calls for another test of 1,12640 and, if the pair holds above it, a move toward 1,13000. The current broad rise in currencies against the dollar supports this scenario. However, the directional view remains provisional ahead of CPI: inflation below expectations could weaken the euro even if broader pressure on the dollar persists. Above-forecast readings could support the euro through a reassessment of ECB policy expectations, but that reaction is not automatic.

A return below 1,12265 would weaken the case for further gains and increase the likelihood of a test of 1,11890. After 15:00 UTC, much of the movement will depend on US data.

GBP/USD

Current price — 1,34820; change — +0,53%. Outlook for the next 24 hours: neutral.

The pound is 11 pips below its daily high of 1,34930. Its historical performance looks stronger than the euro's: the pair has gained 0,62% over five days and 1,02% over twenty days. The current price is also above 1,34190, the upper bound of the supplied daily closing range. This indicates strength relative to that historical window, but without the full price series, we cannot claim that a repeatedly tested technical barrier has been broken.

Support:

• 1,34510 — the midpoint of the daily range of 1,34090–1,34930.
• 1,34190 — the upper bound of the historical closing range, now below the market.
• 1,34090 — the low of the past 24 hours.

Resistance:

• 1,34930 — the daily high.
• 1,35000 — the nearest psychological level.
• 1,35770 — a level calculated by projecting the width of the daily range above 1,34930.

Current momentum points upward, but proximity to 1,35000 also creates scope for profit-taking. The neutral outlook assumes that gains may give way to consolidation and a partial pullback, leaving the net change over the next 24 hours small relative to the current price.

There is no basis for an outright bearish outlook on the pound. The more cautious assessment reflects the absence of a distinct UK catalyst in the supplied calendar and the weak performance of past forecasts: overall accuracy is 36%, and the five previous bullish forecasts did not materialize. A small sample does not prove that gains are impossible, but it limits confidence in further upside after the rise already seen.

A sustained move above 1,35000, with continued broad pressure on the dollar, would argue against the neutral scenario. A move below 1,34510, by contrast, would point to a deeper correction. The US ISM release could take the pair out of consolidation in either direction.

USD/JPY

Current price — 158,229; change — −0,25%. Outlook for the next 24 hours: bearish, subject to the reaction to ISM.

The pair is falling alongside broader dollar weakness but remains in the upper part of the stated 30-day range of 156,800–158,850. At the current price, it is around 70% of the way up that range. The twenty-day change of +0,13% points more to the absence of a clear medium-term trend than to sustained dollar strength against the yen.

Support:

• 158,063 — the midpoint of the daily range of 157,380–158,746.
• 157,380 — the low of the past 24 hours.
• 156,800 — the lower bound of the historical closing range.

Resistance:

• 158,746 — the daily high.
• 158,850 — the upper bound of the historical range.
• 159,000 — a round-number price level.

In the base case, pressure on the dollar favors a decline in USD/JPY toward 158,063. A break below that level would increase the likelihood of another test of 157,380. However, the current price is above the midpoint of the daily range: sellers do not yet control its entire upper half, so confidence in a decline is moderate.

A strong ISM Services reading could support the dollar and send the pair back toward 158,746–158,850. The source data contains no information on today's Bank of Japan decisions, interventions or bond yields; there is insufficient basis to attribute the move to those factors.

AUD/USD

Current price — 0,70050; change — +0,51%. Outlook for the next 24 hours: bullish, as long as broad momentum against the dollar persists.

The Australian dollar is trading just 3 pips below its high of the past 24 hours at 0,70080. Of the currency pairs covered here, it is the closest to the upper end of its daily range. The return above the round-number level of 0,70000 supports the short-term technical picture.

However, AUD/USD has fallen 0,69% over five days, while its twenty-day change is only +0,03%. For now, today's rise should therefore be viewed as a recovery from recent weakness. At the current price, the pair is approximately 42% of the way up its historical range of 0,69108–0,71375.

Support:

• 0,70000 — the nearest round-number level, 5 pips below the market.
• 0,69835 — the midpoint of the daily range.
• 0,69590 — the low of the past 24 hours.

Resistance:

• 0,70080 — the daily high.
• 0,70344 — a calculated reference level approximately one historical daily standard deviation, or 0,42%, above the current price.
• 0,70570 — a projection of the width of the daily range above 0,70080.

Further gains require a sustained move above 0,70080. In that case, the next calculated target area is 0,70344. A return below 0,70000 would increase the likelihood of a correction toward 0,69835 and weaken the bullish scenario.

The directional view rests on observed price strength and the broader dollar factor. The data contains no distinct Australian or Chinese catalysts. Historical forecast accuracy for AUD/USD is 42%, so confidence in a continuation remains limited, particularly ahead of the US release.

Gold (XAU/USD)

Current gold price — $4 035,40; change in the current snapshot — 0,00%. Outlook for the next 24 hours: neutral.

In the historical data, the latest daily close shows a gain of 2,06%, but that reflects a different point in time. It cannot be presented as gold's change at the time of the current quote. The metal has lost 2,19% over twenty days, and its current price is approximately 48% of the way up the daily closing range of $3 897,05–4 185,88.

Gold's daily high and low were not supplied. The nearby levels below therefore consist of round numbers and calculated reference levels relative to $4 035,40.

Support — strictly below the current price:

• $4 000,00 — a psychological level, approximately 0,88% below the market.
• $3 995,85 — the current price minus the historical daily standard deviation of 0,98%.
• $3 897,05 — the lower bound of the historical closing range.

Resistance — strictly above the current price:

• $4 050,00 — the nearest round-number reference level.
• $4 074,95 — the current price plus 0,98%.
• $4 100,00 — the next psychological level.

A weaker dollar can support gold, but the actual correlation between EUR/USD and XAU/USD over the past month was −0,43. The supplied statistics therefore do not support automatically extending the currency scenario to gold. This correlation also does not mean that a rise in the euro will necessarily cause the metal to fall.

The daily scenario calls for consolidation around the current price, with possible intraday spikes toward the stated reference levels. After ISM, the reaction in rate expectations and yields will matter, although their current values are unavailable. A strong report could pressure the metal, while a weak one could support it, if the corresponding reaction appears in the dollar and rates.

With overall accuracy for past gold forecasts at 36% and no confirmed catalyst specific to gold, a directional view would lack sufficient justification. Neutral here means an expectation of a small net change over 24 hours; the risk of a larger move after the data remains substantial.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Current price — $78 355,00. Change over 24 hours — +2,37%. Trading volume over 24 hours — $30,98 billion. Outlook for the next 24 hours: bullish with moderately low confidence.

Bitcoin is recovering while remaining in the lower part of its historical range of $76 709,41–85 770,87 — approximately 18% of the way up. Its five-day gain is 0,68%, while it remains down 3,97% over twenty days. The current rise therefore still represents a recovery within a weaker multiweek trend.

Support:

• $78 000,00 — the nearest round-number reference level below the current price.
• $77 500,00 — an intermediate reference level.
• $76 709,41 — the lower bound of the historical closing range.

Resistance:

• $79 000,00 — the nearest round-number reference level.
• $79 553,83 — a calculated level one historical daily standard deviation, or 1,53%, above the current price.
• $80 000,00 — the next psychological level.

The base case allows for the recovery to continue toward $79 553,83–80 000,00. It rests on positive current momentum and the price holding above the lower bound of the historical range. However, proximity to the lower part of the range does not, by itself, prove undervaluation or that the decline is over.

Volume of $30,98 billion describes current trading activity, but without comparison with previous days, it cannot be called elevated or used as confirmation of capital inflows. A break below $78 000,00 followed by a move below $77 500,00 would weaken the case for a continued recovery.

Bitcoin is assessed separately from currencies: the dataset contains no measured correlations with the other instruments. Historical forecast accuracy is 48%, so bullish is a working hypothesis that momentum will continue, rather than a highly reliable signal.

Relationships Between Instruments

The base case for the next 24 hours is moderate dollar weakness, although the data releases could change that scenario.

This assessment leads to bullish outlooks for EUR/USD and AUD/USD and a bearish outlook for USD/JPY. GBP/USD and gold remain neutral: the pound is expected to pause near the nearest round-number resistance after its recent rise, while gold lacks confirmation of the broad dollar-driven momentum. The directional forecasts for the euro and pound do not point in opposite directions.

The strongest measured relationship is between EUR/USD and GBP/USD: +0,82. Buying both pairs therefore largely duplicates the same bet. The difference in today's forecasts reflects lower confidence in further pound gains from the current price; it is not based on an invented divergence between ECB and Bank of England policy.

The correlations of EUR/USD with AUD/USD at +0,39 and GBP/USD with AUD/USD at +0,57 show partial overlap in their movements. The Australian dollar adds variation of its own but does not provide full independence from the broader currency scenario.

The correlation between EUR/USD and USD/JPY is −0,38, while that between GBP/USD and USD/JPY is −0,44. Buying the European currencies against the dollar and selling USD/JPY therefore partly reinforce the same exposure to a weaker US dollar. Meanwhile, the correlation between AUD/USD and USD/JPY is just −0,08: their daily moves over the past month had almost no linear relationship, even though today's scenario for both pairs has a common dollar component.

Gold stands out for its negative correlation with EUR/USD of −0,43. This is a specific reason not to extend the bullish euro outlook to gold. Bitcoin is also considered separately because the supplied data does not allow its relationship with the other assets to be measured.

In practical terms, the instruments present three sources of scenario risk: the broad dollar factor across currencies, gold's own price dynamics and cryptocurrency momentum. These are not three proven independent bets: the independence of gold and bitcoin from each other has not been measured. If, however, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and gold are all bought while USD/JPY is sold solely to position for a weaker dollar, the result is one macroeconomic bet across five positions; with equal position sizes, the risk adds up rather than being diversified.

Recommendations for Traders

The main question today is whether the releases will confirm the dollar weakness already observed. The base directional forecasts rely on current momentum, rather than an assumption that the actual CPI and ISM readings will necessarily support further dollar weakness.

• Before 10:00 UTC, the key risk for EUR/USD is inflation deviating from consensus. A rise in headline CPI to 4,0% is already expected and is not, by itself, a positive surprise.
• At 15:00 UTC, the broad dollar factor could change the picture for several instruments at once. ISM's deviation from the 54,8 forecast matters more than the small expected decline from 54,9.
• Proximity to daily highs in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD confirms the strength of current momentum but increases the likelihood of pullbacks if breakout attempts fail.
• Aggregate currency exposure is more informative than the number of open positions. Risk overlap is particularly large between the euro and pound.
• Calculated levels based on standard deviation and range width mark scenario reference points. They are not confirmed areas of concentrated orders and do not establish guaranteed limits for price moves.
• Neutral forecasts for the pound and gold imply a small net change over 24 hours, but not an absence of intraday volatility. A significant data surprise could invalidate this scenario.

These assessments describe market scenarios and the conditions for revising them; they do not constitute personalized investment advice.